Pine Ridge, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

639
FXUS63 KUNR 292324
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
524 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty southwest winds will develop over the region this
  afternoon. Gusts of up to 55 mph expected. Critical fire weather
  conditions also expected to develop this afternoon across
  portions of northeastern WY into southwestern SD.

- Isolated to scattered storms expected over northwestern SD this
  afternoon and evening. A couple storms may become strong to
  severe with large hail and damaging winds as the main hazards.

- Isolated severe storms possible over south central SD late
  Tuesday evening. Main hazards will be large hail and damaging
  winds.

- Unsettled weather continues through the rest of the week with
  near daily chances for isolated afternoon showers/storms and
  temperatures in the 80s to 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Monday)
Issued at 112 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Current upper level analysis depicts upper low centered over MT
with 90-100KT 300 mb jet streak over WY/CO. Water vapor imagery
shows dry air streaming into western SD ahead of another weak wave
associated with the aforementioned jet streak. Most areas will
remain dry today though isolated to scattered showers/storms are
possible over northwestern SD this afternoon and evening as the
jet streak moves overhead. Ample deep layer shear of 50+KT will
support rotating updrafts and organized severe weather, though
forecast ML CAPE values will be 500-1000 J/kg which will limit
overall severe threat. Still, we could see a couple of stronger to
severe storms with large hail and damaging wind gusts as the main
hazards. Southwest winds are picking up across the region with
gusts of up to 50-55 mph in WY. These winds will move over western
SD later this afternoon, a Wind Advisory remains in effect for
much of the western SD plains.

Unstable southwest flow continues across the Northern Plains
through Tuesday with another shortwave approaching the region late
Tuesday into early Wednesday. This should bring another round of
convection to our corner of the plains late Tuesday night/early
Wednesday morning. In terms of severe threat, some elevated
instability could push into our south central zones late Tuesday
evening with forecast MU CAPE approaching 3000+ J/kg. Deep layer
shear will be marginal (around 20-30 kt) so not expecting any
widespread organized severe weather but we could see isolated
elevated storms capable of large hail and damaging winds.

Storm chances continue through Wednesday as a weak wave
approaches the region. Again, the higher instability will be
displaced to the south of our CWA but forecast ML CAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg and 40-50kt of deep layer shear may be enough to
support an isolated severe threat Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Looking into the holiday weekend, models are still indicating
warming temperatures through the end of this week with highs in
the upper 80s to 90s by Friday. Continued southwest flow across
the Northern Plains will support near daily chances for afternoon
storms as upper level disturbances ripple along the flow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued At 519 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Gusty southwest winds (~50 to 55 mph) linger through 01-02z
before winds begin to diminish this evening.

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 112 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Humidities over Southern Campbell County into southwestern SD
have dropped into the teens to low 20s with increasing southwest
winds. Widespread critical fire weather conditions expected this
afternoon across those areas as humidities drop to around 15 to
18% and southwest winds gust up to 55 mph. Elsewhere, elevated to
near-critical fire weather conditions expected to develop this
afternoon.

Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions expected again
tomorrow as humidities drop to 15 to 20% across much of the area.
Lighter winds will preclude the development of critical fire
weather conditions, though localized critical fire weather
conditions may develop over northwestern SD where westerly winds
may gust up to 40 mph.

Daily elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions
anticipated through the latter half of the week, especially over
northeastern WY into southwestern SD as temperatures climb into
the 90s and humidities drop into the teens to low 20s.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for SDZ012-013-025>027-
     030-031-041-042-072>076.
     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for SDZ322-325-326-
     332.
WY...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ315-317.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wong
AVIATION...Schultz
FIRE WEATHER...Wong